Comments on: Rubbish

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sat, 12 Feb 2005 06:35:37 +0000

You are invited to visit some information dedicated to

By: Formerly Dan

Formerly Dan — Wed, 04 Aug 2004 17:06:30 +0000

One thing to consider about phone polls is … I lie to them all the time.

My goal is have polling so discredited that nobody cares what they say. With that in mind I NEVER answer a pollster truthfully. Even if the poll is on cookies I lie.

By: Mrs. du Toit

Mrs. du Toit — Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:08:36 +0000

Republicans vote more often and that skews the results. Subtract about 5-15% (depending on the state) from the Kerry side and you’ll have a more accurate picture.

The polls thought McGovern/Nixon was close (both with 41%).

By: Sandy p

Sandy p — Wed, 04 Aug 2004 01:13:39 +0000

There were supposedly all these undecideds these past few months, Kerry doesn’t get a bounce and now there’s no undecideds.

Rigght.

By: Sandy p

Sandy p — Wed, 04 Aug 2004 01:11:49 +0000

Fairmodel’s been updated. W 57%.

Iowa Markets W’s up over 50 since the dem convention.

By: Scott

Scott — Tue, 03 Aug 2004 22:03:58 +0000

I don’t believe any polls due to the inherent selection bias.

Where is the evidence that people who voluntarily choose to answer a poller’s question accurately model the overall population…

By: RepJ

RepJ — Tue, 03 Aug 2004 21:50:15 +0000

Well, Carter got a 16 point bounce, and Dukakis had a 7 point bounce. I did just read, however, that there is a very low number of undecideds, and that is where the bounce generally comes from. So, the more people that have their minds already made up, the lower the bounce.

By: lyle

lyle — Tue, 03 Aug 2004 20:48:21 +0000

Kerry’s poll numbers are worse than they appear.

He had two tried-and-true opportunities to boost his numbers: the veep selection and the convention. Between them, they should have given him near a double-digit lead. They didn’t come close. He may have lost ground.

This may mean that his support has already maxed out. Meanwhile, the economy improves and the Republican convention is yet to come. The unexpected could happen, but this is not a good trend for the Kerry campaign.

Incidentally, the Washington Post usually oversamples democrats by a very wide margin. 50-44 in favor of the democrat probably means it’s a dead heat.

By: Mark Slater

Mark Slater — Tue, 03 Aug 2004 19:45:07 +0000

It’s gonna be a close one. Look for a few key states (thanks, Andy) as being pivotal: Ohio (most important); also Oregon, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire.

By: Expatlse

Expatlse — Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:43:45 +0000

As far as the 15 point bounce is concerned, the estimate was from a Republican source who was intentionally trying to build expectations (that no Kerry supporters bought). The 15% bounce, while not unheard of, is not close to the average.

By: Jeff Doolittle

Jeff Doolittle — Tue, 03 Aug 2004 17:53:03 +0000

I’m no expert, but I’ms sure we all recall similar fluctuations in the polls four years ago. I think polls are only as good as the day on which they are taken. What I mean is, if the vote was taken today the poll may, in fact, be accurate. However, as predictors of future voter behavior, polls seems to be just another way to generate headlines.

By: asher abrams

asher abrams — Tue, 03 Aug 2004 17:42:16 +0000

Let’s remember one thing: the election is still three months away. The Democratic Party is in disarray. All the Kerry supporters I know (and that’s most of the people I know) are growing less sure of themselves and more desperate. Their ideological edifice is set to crumble. Now is the time to step out and start talking to people. There is time.

The only poll that counts is the one in November.

By: Vanyogan

Vanyogan — Tue, 03 Aug 2004 17:40:07 +0000

I don’t think the polls mean anything until after the Republican National Convention. But KEEP IN MIND, the CA recall election where Arnold was supposedly in a tight race with ___[What was his name again?]

I think that the media is so in for Bush that they have been “push polling” for some time now. They just can’t help themselves. Push polling is an intentional phrasing of questions and sample selection to achieve a desired result in the hopes that the polling will push people toward that view/candidate.

The only polls that count are the internal campaign polls. You can tell more about how they are doing by observing the tactics and spending patterns of the campaigns than any poll will tell you.

In CA the Dems paraded every Democrat they could find to help Gray Davis, that should have told you just how bad things were. It also tells you just how unpredictable the Latino vote is.

By: Richard

Richard — Tue, 03 Aug 2004 17:21:38 +0000

You know the old saying: “There are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

By: David Chance

David Chance — Tue, 03 Aug 2004 16:33:18 +0000

I would recommend to anyone to read “Off with their Heads” by Dick Morris. He has a good section that in detail discusses how the New York Times conducts polls and how they skew the results. Very informative and you will never believe a poll from them again as to they always add 3 points to the liberal side.